By Pradeep S. Mehta, Anjali Shekhawat and Purushendra Singh,
(Highlight: Australia’s RAAF is pioneering an artificial intelligence system to detect life rafts and vessels in distress across vast ocean expanses. India’s MQ-9B drones assembly line, meanwhile, promises to be not just a source of self-sufficiency but a hub for Indo-Pacific allies as well. Joint training, technology transfers, and operational synergies—from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Islands—could fortify the region’s strategic fabric, countering assertiveness without relying solely on an unpredictable America.)
As the Trump 2.0 regime looms, bringing unpredictability to American foreign policy, Australia and India face a pivotal moment to redefine their strategic futures in the Indo-Pacific. Confronted by China’s assertiveness and a global order tilting towards flux—evidenced by European boycotts of US products and wavering alliances—these QUAD partners must pursue defence autonomy through deeper bilateral cooperation.
Some synergies are plainly evident. Australia’s vast uranium reserves and cutting-edge surveillance technologies, paired with India’s burgeoning drone manufacturing and industrial ambitions, offer a foundation to counter regional instability and reduce reliance on United States. This is not just an opportunity; it’s a necessity.
In the expanses of northern South Australia, lies a quiet yet potent symbol of resilience: a uranium mine operated by Heathgate Resources, a subsidiary of San Diego-based General Atomics. Using cutting-edge in-situ leach technology, it churns out fuel for the world’s nuclear power plants, marrying innovation with resource wealth to power a low-carbon future. The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) too sharpens its gaze over the Indo-Pacific, bolstered by advanced training and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) like the MQ-4C Triton. These twin pillars—energy and defence—anchor Australia’s strategic presence in a region and is a unique case study for India that exemplifies stability in rising geopolitics.
Meanwhile, India, a rising force in the Indo-Pacific, has secured a $3.5 billion deal with the United States to procure 31 MQ-9B Predator Reaper drones, with 21 to be assembled locally, as announced by General Atomics’ Chief Executive, Vivek Lall, in March 2025. Lall envisions this assembly line catering to the broader Indo-Pacific, ensuring the region remains prosperous, free, and open. Together, Australia and India stand at a crossroads, compelled by unpredictable American behaviour under a Trump 2.0 regime and a shifting global order to redefine their strategic futures.
Regional Challenges and Collective Response
The Indo-Pacific, a theatre of escalating tensions, demands fresh thinking. China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and over Taiwan, coupled with its economic sway through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), challenges the region’s equilibrium. The QUAD—comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—offers a framework to counter this, yet its linchpin, America, grows increasingly erratic. The first Trump administration approved $600 million in arms sales to Taiwan, including General Atomics’ MQ-9B drones, but a second term promises a transactional, confrontational stance that could alienate allies. As global sentiment sours—evidenced by a Norwegian shipping firm, Haltbakk, refusing to refuel U.S. Navy vessels, and whispers of Canada rethinking its Lockheed Martin F-35 order—the search for defence autonomy becomes urgent.
This flux reverberates across the Indo-Pacific. Malaysia and Indonesia patrol vital sea lanes with U.S.-provided Insitu ScanEagle UAS, while the Philippines and Vietnam eye unmanned platforms to secure their waters amid South China Sea tensions. Australia’s investment in long-range intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities underscores its commitment to security, while the region’s militaries increasingly turn to hybrid warfare to address shared challenges likepiracy andmaritime surveillance. The collective shift towards self-reliance creates fertile ground for Australia and India to deepen their defence cooperation, unshackled from the baggage of past dependencies.
Opportunities in Energy and Defence Collaboration
Australia’s uranium reserves, the world’s largest, position it as a linchpin in the global nuclear supply chain. Exporting to power reactors worldwide, it sustains a coal-heavy domestic grid—a paradox of fuelling the future without fully embracing it at home. The in-situ leach method, which extracts uranium without excavation, blends sustainability with innovation, aligning with a world hungry for clean energy. For Australia, this isn’t just about digging up; it’s about securing a stake in energy diplomacy. India, with its industrial ambitions under “Make in India, Make for the World,” could tap this resource wealth, aligning energy security with its vision for a prosperous Indo-Pacific.
Defence ties offer even greater promise. Australia’s RAAF is pioneering an artificial intelligence system to detect life rafts and vessels in distress across vast ocean expanses, tested with sensors built from GoPro cameras and adaptable for manned and unmanned aircraft. This scalable technology, with applications in humanitarian and security missions, positions Australia as a partner capable of elevating regional capabilities. India’s MQ-9B drones assembly line, meanwhile, promises to be not just a source of self-sufficiency but a hub for Indo-Pacific allies as well. Joint training, technology transfers, and operational synergies—from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Islands—could fortify the region’s strategic fabric, countering assertiveness without relying solely on an unpredictable America.
Navigating Global Shifts and Building Resilience
Yet the world is tilting. Europe’s push for defence autonomy, embodied by the Eurodrone project backed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, rejects reliance on U.S. systems. If boycotts of American goods gain traction Australia and India must ponder the reliability of their defence tech alliances. Competitors like Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), with cost-effective Heron drones, and Portugal’s Tekever, with nimble tactical UAS, challenge the status quo. Closer to home, China flexes its muscles, testing the QUAD’s resolve. Australia’s tether to the U.S. via AUKUS and Five Eyes keeps it aligned with the West, but a prudent pivot towards India and other like-minded partners offers resilience.
The proposed Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, building on the existing Economic and Trade Agreement, provides a perch for enhanced defence equipment collaboration. Moreover, Australia’s uranium exports and India’s drone manufacturing could diversify their strategic bases, with Japan, a key nuclear energy partner, joining the equation.
As America aspires to be great again, geopolitics remains the wildcard. One doesn’t know how the current melee with trade tariffs will play out but it will certainly affect the global economy, including the US’s. In these circumstances, reforming export regimes, like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in the U.S., could open new markets for advanced technologies, strengthening its competitiveness. But failure, coupled with boycotts or contract cancellations, could force a reckoning. The lesson for Australia and its partners including India is clear: their presence is a strategic asset, but not an unassailable one. The alliance with the US underpins it, yet the world’s shifting mood demands flexibility. Australia should deepen its Indo-Pacific role—exports, surveillance, local jobs—while forging ties elsewhere. The region won’t wait, and neither should Australia.
The authors work for CUTS International, a global public policy research and advocacy group.
This article can also be viewed at:
https://indiasworld.in/