By Purushendra Singh and Dhruv Bansal
The tensions in the South China Sea are not new however, new chapters have unfolded recently. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) mentioned that there has been a further increase in Chinese military activities around the island, detecting People Liberation Army’s (PLA) vessels entering Taiwan’s southwestern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).
Similarly, tensions are high between the Philippines and China after the Chinese military conducted a joint sea and air patrol around the Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island by China and Panatag Shoal by the Philippines, which is a disputed territory that both Beijing and Manila claim. Since a significant standoff in 2012, China has maintained de facto control over the area.
This rocky outcrop in the South China Sea is not just a matter of national pride but also a strategic asset due to the rich fishing grounds and potential energy resources in the surrounding waters. The conflict over Scarborough Shoal is part of the broader South China Sea dispute, which involves several countries contesting territorial claims and access to maritime resources.
International rulings, like the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision favouring the Philippines, have not resolved the tensions, and the area remains a flashpoint for regional security.
In response to these ongoing tensions, the Philippines recently passed the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act and the Maritime Zones Act on November 8. These laws aim to establish clear maritime boundaries and protect the Philippines' sovereign rights in the region.
Despite these legal efforts, the situation remains complex. As regional powers continue to assert their claims, the Philippines faces the challenge of balancing diplomacy, military readiness, and international support to safeguard its interests.
This article examines the historical context, ongoing tensions, and strategies that the Philippines can adopt to protect its interests, and most importantly - sovereignty.
A prolonged and escalating conflict
Dating back several decades and some would say centuries, the SCS has long been a source of tension between China and the Philippines, marked by several significant incidents. For instance, in 1995, China began constructing structures on Mischief Reef, another area within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, marking the start of China's aggressive island-building efforts.
In 2012, a standoff at Scarborough Shoal, historically part of the Chinese maps as per historical claims got ensued after the Philippine Navy attempted to detain Chinese fishermen found illegally harvesting marine resources in the area. In response, Chinese maritime surveillance vessels intervened, leading to a tense standoff that lasted several weeks.
Despite initial diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, China ultimately maintained its presence at Scarborough Shoal, effectively barring Filipino access to the fishing grounds
Then in 2019 Reed Bank incident, where a Chinese vessel rammed into a Filipino fishing boat, further fueled diplomatic tensions, highlighting China's expansionist strategies and the Philippines' ongoing struggle to assert its sovereignty.
In late August 2024, another confrontation occurred near Sabina Shoal (Escoda Shoal) between Filipino and Chinese coast guard vessels, with both sides accusing each other of ramming ships, intensifying the conflict in the South China Sea.
These incidents show how China, which is landlocked on three sides, is desperate for maritime territorial control in the South Sea to secure valuable resources, such as fishing grounds, critical minerals, navigation and potential underwater oil reserves among other strategic gains. On the other hand, the Philippines is determined to defend its sovereignty and its exclusive maritime rights, as recognised by a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
In 2016, an arbitral tribunal at the Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines, stating that China’s claims based on the Nine-Dash Line had no legal basis under international law. However, China has consistently rejected this ruling.
These implications have far-reaching implications beyond the immediate region. Firstly, a clash between China and the Philippines could disrupt international shipping, leading to economic disruptions and potentially escalating into a broader regional or even global conflict. Moreover, the U.S., a key ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to defending the country under the Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) which was signed in 1951 and obligates both the U.S. and the Philippines to come to each other's aid if either is attacked. This includes aid in the SCS, thus making this region part of the larger geopolitical tensions and rivalry.
Philippines' Struggles against China's Power
China's vast military expenditure allows for advanced naval capabilities and a significant presence in contested waters, effectively outmatching the Philippines' much smaller and less equipped forces. In 2023, China’s defence budget stood at a massive $296 billion, dwarfing the Philippines’ $4.28 billion. This imbalance leaves the Philippines heavily reliant on its alliances, particularly the United States with whom it shares an all-weather friendship.
Economically, just like other ASEAN member countries, the Philippines' dependency on China complicates its stance. China remains its largest trading partner with a total trade of $80.4 billion in 2022, and of course, it’s tilted in China’s favour. Economic coercion by China, such as trade restrictions or investment pullbacks, could severely impact the Philippine economy. The reliance on China for both imports and exports places the Philippines in a precarious position, where assertive actions in the SCS could provoke economic retaliation.
Within regional dynamics, ASEAN's role is crucial, yet its effectiveness is often hampered by the differing interests of its member states, some of which have closer ties to China and two, focus on the centrality of ASEAN which maintains neutrality on the global rivalry. This power disparity also raises concerns about potential conflicts, where miscalculations could escalate tensions, drawing in other global powers including India and Russia which sold a jointly developed supersonic cruise missile system “BrahMos” to the Philippines, the first-ever deal by the duo in the Southeast Asian region.
Furthermore, The South China Sea is vital to the Philippines, providing rich fishing grounds essential for the livelihoods of millions and crucial for national food security. Disputes in these waters threaten fishing activities, potentially leading to increased poverty, job scarcity, and social unrest in coastal communities.
With high unemployment rates pushing Filipinos to seek work abroad, including training programs in South Korea for domestic roles, the need for a stable maritime environment becomes even more critical. Loss of access to these resources would exacerbate economic challenges and highlight the urgency of securing these waters against external threats.
A Multifaceted Approach for Manila
We are reminded of a quote by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, “Sovereignty is not given, but taken”. The escalating tensions between China and the Philippines in the SCS demand a multifaceted approach that balances military preparedness, economic resilience, diplomatic engagement, and environmental stewardship. The Philippines needs to take back its sovereignty.
To effectively address these challenges, the Philippines should prioritise strengthening its capabilities across various sectors. This includes modernising military assets, expanding the Coast Guard's presence, and conducting joint exercises with allies. The Philippines started investing heavily in its military to safeguard its maritime territories from potential Chinese aggression. The country has allocated $35 billion for military modernisation, which includes the acquisition of submarines. This significant expenditure is seen as a crucial step in deterring any hostile actions.
Furthermore, enhancing security alliances with like-minded countries and increasing joint military exercises will improve readiness and demonstrate a commitment to mutual defence. Collaborating with regional partners such as ASEAN, Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. to establish a robust security framework is essential for countering Chinese assertiveness in the region and ensuring a stable maritime environment vital for its national interests.
Diversifying economic partnerships represents a critical strategy for mitigating dependence on China. Actively pursuing trade and investment relationships with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, India, and the European Union can enhance economic resilience and provide alternative markets for Philippine products.
Additionally, strengthening diplomatic and legal strategies is essential. Upholding the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling and collaborating with international entities to exert diplomatic pressure on China should be prioritized. Engaging with ASEAN to establish a unified regional position on the South China Sea could further support Manila's claims.
This has been realised to some extent under former President Marcos Jr. as there's been a renewed willingness to play a larger role in the region and be a significant stakeholder in the established order. The Philippines which is a U.S. treaty ally, a major partner of Japan, and has historic defence ties with Australia has come together as the “Squad”. This initiative is to consolidate defence and military cooperation among the four countries to strengthen four-way efforts in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the SCS.
Promoting sustainable development in disputed areas is also essential. Advocating for the protection of marine biodiversity through environmental diplomacy can serve as a platform for broader negotiations. Moreover, developing and promoting sustainable fishing practices in collaboration with neighbouring countries will ensure long-term food security and support livelihoods for coastal communities.
Drawing inspiration from Australia’s Pacific Policing Initiative, the Philippines should aim to implement similar patrol strategies, develop regional training centres and collaborate with allied nations in the SCS. Under the MDT treaty, the Philippines has the opportunity to conduct joint patrols with the US.
Finally, working towards what Political Scientist, Richard Haas said “sovereignty must be redefined if states are to cope with globalisation”, engaging in backchannel diplomacy by establishing discreet communication channels with China is essential. This approach can help manage crises, redraw boundaries, reduce misunderstandings, and explore potential areas of cooperation.
In light of escalating tensions, immediate actions are also imperative for the Philippines to safeguard its maritime interests in the South China Sea. Foremost, enhancing naval deployments around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal is critical—not merely as a show of strength but as a resolute assertion of sovereignty against encroachments. Simultaneously, deepening partnerships with allies such as the U.S., Japan, and Australia through joint exercises and coordinated patrols will send a powerful message of solidarity, underscoring a united front against any aggression.
Equally vital is the strategic amplification of the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, which stands as a robust legal bulwark against China's overreaching claims. Domestically, modernising the Coast Guard to ensure vigilant enforcement of maritime law, coupled with dynamic public awareness campaigns, can galvanize national unity. By highlighting the South China Sea's profound significance to sovereignty, security, and sustenance, these actions will not only safeguard the nation’s waters but also foster enduring pride and resilience among its people. Through such decisive measures, the Philippines can anchor itself firmly in defending its rightful place in the region.
The authors work for CUTS International, a forty-year-old global public policy research and advocacy group with centres around the world. >
This article can also be viewed at:
https://usanasfoundation.com/