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Indo-Pacific Becomes the New Gulf
The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and disruptions to Gulf maritime routes are reshaping the Indo-Pacific into a major energy and economic theatre, reducing Asian dependence on West Asian oil. Rising production in the U.S., Canada, Guyana, Venezuela, and Russia, alongside new Pacific-oriented infrastructure such as the Trans-Panama Pipeline and Canada's TMX project, is creating alternative supply routes for major consumers like India, Japan, and South Korea.
This shift gives the Indo-Pacific an independent economic rationale beyond balancing China, while strengthening the strategic relevance of the Quad and positioning India as a key driver of the region’s evolving energy, trade, and geopolitical landscapes.
(The Economic Times, 29.06.26)
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CPTPP Expands Trade Agenda
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) parties, meeting virtually on June 26, 2026, reaffirmed their commitment to a rules-based trading order amid growing global trade fragmentation. They advanced Costa Rica’s accession, accelerated Uruguay’s bid, and launched preparatory talks with the UAE, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These decisions signal the bloc’s continued expansion into Southeast Asia and the Middle East, strengthening Indo-Pacific economic integration and supply-chain resilience.
The establishment of a new Working Group on Rules of Origin and Customs Cooperation reflects efforts to counter trade circumvention and illegal transhipment. Enhanced engagement with ASEAN and the EU further positions the CPTPP as a key platform shaping regional and global trade governance.
(HR Net, 30.06.26)
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Trade and Economic Affairs
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Thailand Concludes ASEAN Digital Deal
 ASEAN has concluded negotiations on the Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) under Thailand’s chairmanship of the negotiating committee, marking a significant milestone in regional digital integration. The agreement aims to establish high-standard rules for digital trade, enhance cross-border interoperability, strengthen cybersecurity and support MSMEs’ access to technology and markets.
Expected to be signed at the ASEAN Summit in November 2026, DEFA is projected to accelerate ASEAN’s digital transformation and could expand the region’s digital economy to US$2tn by 2030, reinforcing its position as a global digital hub.
.(The Nation, 05.06.26)
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Philippines Joins Pax Silica
The Philippines has joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative, becoming its 13th member, strengthening efforts to build secure semiconductor and AI supply chains across allied economies. Under the partnership, Manila and Washington will establish a 4,000-acre AI-native industrial hub within the Luzon Economic Corridor, leveraging the Philippines’ strategic Indo-Pacific location and skilled workforce.
The initiative enhances regional economic security, technological resilience, and deeper U.S.-Philippines industrial and strategic cooperation.
(Philippines News Agency, 17.04.26)
ADB, Germany Boost Nature Finance
Germany has joined the Asian Development Bank’s Nature Solutions Finance Hub with €5.5mn (US$6.5mn) in grant funding to support biodiversity protection and ecosystem restoration across Asia and the Pacific.
The initiative aims to mobilise US$5bn in nature-positive investments by 2030, strengthening regional climate resilience and sustainable development. The partnership also underscores growing international cooperation to bridge the global nature finance gap and expand nature-based solutions across critical sectors and vulnerable ecosystems.
(ADB, 05.05.26)
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India-New Zealand Sign FTA
The India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement marks a significant step in advancing bilateral economic and strategic ties by providing duty-free access for all Indian exports and supporting a proposed US$20bn investment commitment over the next 15 years.
The agreement strengthens MSMEs, women-led enterprises and labour-intensive industries, while protecting India’s sensitive dairy and agricultural sectors. It also promotes agricultural productivity, skilled mobility and cooperation in traditional medicine and services, reinforcing India’s economic engagement with the Oceania and Pacific region.
(P.I.B, 27.04.26)
China’s Solar Exports Hit Record
China’s solar exports reached a record 68 GW in March 2026, driven by rising fossil fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict and anticipated increases in clean technology costs following the withdrawal of Chinese tax rebates. Demand surged across Asia and Africa, with countries such as India, Nigeria and Ethiopia significantly increasing imports.
The trend highlights the growing role of solar energy in supporting energy security, accelerating the clean energy transition, and strengthening domestic renewable manufacturing capacities in developing economies.
(Eco-Business, 29.05.26)
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Xi-Trump Beijing Summit
The Xi-Trump Beijing Summit produced limited but noteworthy outcomes, including agreements on Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, alongside the establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment to institutionalise economic engagement.
While no substantive progress was made on the tariff truce due to expire in November 2026, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to dialogue and pragmatic cooperation. The summit reflected a cautious stabilisation of Sino-U.S. economic relations while leaving key structural trade disputes and tariff issues unresolved.
(China Briefing, 18.05.26)
Shangri-La Dialogue 2026
The 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue highlighted Asia’s increasingly fragmented security landscape, shaped by great-power competition, economic disruptions. and declining strategic trust. Regional countries expressed growing concerns over the reliability of U.S. commitments, China’s expanding influence, and the spillover effects of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In response, middle powers are strengthening defence capabilities, pursuing flexible minilateral partnerships, and investing in asymmetric security measures, reflecting a broader shift towards strategic autonomy and resilience in the Indo-Pacific.
(Asia Times, 03.06.26)
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WIC Asia-Pacific Summit 2026
The 2026 World Internet Conference (WIC) Asia-Pacific Summit opened in Hong Kong on April 13, 2026 under the theme, “Digital and Intelligent Empowerment for Innovative Development - Jointly Building a Community with a Shared Future in Cyberspace.”
Discussions focus on AI innovation, digital finance, cyber governance, healthcare and digital heritage. The summit aims to strengthen regional digital cooperation, unlock emerging market opportunities, and reinforce the Asia-Pacific’s role in shaping global norms and governance frameworks for the digital economy.
(China Daily, 14.04.26)
US Pacific Command Renamed The Trump administration’s decision to rename the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command as the U.S. Pacific Command reflects a symbolic return to traditional Pacific priorities without altering its operational mandate. The move underscores Washington’s continued focus on deterring China, particularly over Taiwan, while highlighting the diminishing military relevance of the Quad amid increasingly transactional US-India relations. It also reinforces the importance of indigenous capability development and maritime strategy as key drivers of regional influence and strategic autonomy in the Indo-Pacific.
(South China Morning Post, 22.06.26)
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2026 Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting
 The 11th Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in New Delhi on May 26, 2026, reaffirmed the grouping’s commitment to advancing a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific. Key outcomes included the launch of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration to strengthen maritime domain awareness and the expansion of the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness.
The Quad also introduced initiatives on critical minerals, energy security, secure undersea connectivity and next-generation telecommunications standards, including 6G. Enhanced counterterrorism cooperation and disaster response coordination further reflected the Quad’s growing role as a key strategic and security framework in the Indo-Pacific.
(U.S Department of State, 26.05.26)
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Hinrich Foundation
 On June 09, 2026, the Hinrich Foundation released white paper as three-part series on Going Nuclear.
Part 1st entitled “Going Nuclear, Part 1 Weighing The US Case For Nuclear Energy Exports” highlights America’s strength in small modular reactor, its strong safety record, and its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation. The paper recommends that the U.S. strengthen alliances, reform aspects of its nuclear export policy, and enhance the commercial competitiveness of its nuclear industry.
Part 2: Russia, China, and Southeast Asia’s Nuclear Power Ambitions, notes that Russia has established the strongest foothold in Southeast Asia’s nuclear energy market, while China is also expanding its nuclear exports portfolio in the region. The paper argues that ASEAN governments must carefully balance geopolitical considerations, technology transfer opportunities, and commitments to global non-proliferation and nuclear safety when selecting nuclear partners.
Part 3: Southeast Asia’s Nuclear Option: Great Powers, Small Reactors, And An Open Question argues that rising energy demand could see nuclear power plants operating in Southeast Asia within the next decade. It highlights the need for robust safety, security, regulatory and governance frameworks while addressing geopolitical competition, non-proliferation concerns and public acceptance.
https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/
Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE)
 During the quarter, the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE) published a series of insightful commentaries examining evolving geopolitical and maritime security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.
On April 02, 2026, NIICE published “Not One Inch: Continuity from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping in China’s Maritime Manifest Destiny” which analysed the continuity in China's maritime strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping and highlighted China's expanding strategic posture in the South China Sea.
On April 15, 2026, NIICE released “Politics of Renaming Features and the South China Sea,” which explored the geopolitical implications of renaming disputed maritime features, such moves reinforce territorial claims bit are outweighed by rising military assertiveness, underscoring the importance of strategic autonomy for regional stability.
On May 02, 2026, NIICE published "The Cross-Strait Pendulum: Navigating the New Normal in China-Taiwan Relations" which examined evolving cross-Strait dynamics, highlighting military posturing, economic coercion, and diplomatic manoeuvring and their implications for regional and global security.
On June 10, 2026, NIICE released "Balikatan 2026 and Fortified Multilateral Force in Indo-Pacific Region," focusing on the evolving security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.
On June 17, 2026, NIICE also organised a discussion on “India, China and the QUAD” providing a platform for deliberations on the evolving strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific.
At the 9th Indian Ocean Conference 2026 in Mauritius during April 10-12, 2026, NIICE Director Sumitra Karki highlighted Nepal's maritime interests, stressing its reliance on Indian ports and securing Indian Ocean sea lanes despite being a landlocked "virtual maritime country."
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
 On June 29, 2026, BDEI published an article on “Global AI – The India Opportunity.” The article notes that the India AI Impact Summit, held in February 2026, brought together global leaders to discuss AI innovation and safety while positioning India as an emerging global AI hub.
It argues that AI development can benefit both the U.S. and its partners, particularly where markets, strategic objectives, and capabilities are complementary, making India uniquely attractive partner.
The article also highlights that, to become a global AI leader, India must significantly expand its computing infrastructure. With around 40,000 GPUs currently available, India aims to increase this capacity to 100,000 by the end of the year with support from US companies.
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Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)
https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER)
 On May 25, 2026, the CIER and Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), with support from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in India, convened the Taiwan-India Economic Partnership Workshop in New Delhi. The workshop highlighted the collaboration on resilient supply chains, semiconductors, AI, innovation, talent development, and stronger bilateral economic ties.
On June 02, 2026, the CIER and the Chinese National Federation of Industries organised the 21st Southeast Asia Economic and Trade Work Platform in Taipei under the theme, “One Year of the Trump Administration’s Tariff Policies: Impacts on ASEAN Supply Chains, AI Development and New Trends in Taiwanese Investment.” Discussions emphasised diversified supply chain strategies, stronger regional cooperation, talent development, and enhanced industrial capacity to support ASEAN's emergence as a key hub for AI and advanced manufacturing.
On June 08, 2026, the CIER organised the seminar “EU-Taiwan Semiconductor Cooperation in a Changing Global Landscape.” Discussions emphasised strengthening strategic partnerships, fostering talent development, and enhancing industrial collaboration to leverage opportunities arising from the European Chips Act 2.0 and growing Taiwanese semiconductor investments in Europe.
On April 17, 2026, the CIER released its forecast of Taiwan’s 2026 Q2 economic forecast projecting 2026 full-year GDP growth of 7.22 percent and CPI growth of 1.98 percent, adjusting forward from its January forecast of 4.14 percent GDP growth and 1.64 percent CPI growth. The report attributes the stronger outlook to robust AI-driven demand, which continues to support exports and investment despite global geopolitical uncertainty.
On July 24, 2026, the CIER will host a seminar “Supply Chain Restructuring and the New Competitive Landscape under Cost Disruption.” Discussions will focus on Taiwan’s PMI and NMI outlooks, energy policy, and practical strategies to enhance industrial resilience and competitiveness.
In June 2026, the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Centre at the CIER released the latest edition of its ASEAN Outlook series, featuring analyses on regional political and economic developments, including “Tô Lâm’s Personalisation of Power and Its Constraints” and “A New Era of ASEAN Investment: Key Insights from the Report on Investment Trends of Taiwanese Companies in ASEAN, 2018-2024.”
CIER also published the May 2026 Economic Outlook Series, titled “War, Transformation, and Strategic Competition: Taiwan’s Response to Energy Disruptions, Supply Chain Realignment, and Intensifying Technological Rivalry,” offering insights into energy security, supply chain restructuring, electric vehicle policies, and the geopolitical challenges shaping Taiwan’s economic and industrial strategies.
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During this Quarter ISAS has published few briefs: